18 resultados para ROC Curve

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo (BDPI/USP)


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Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.

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In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

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Predictive performance evaluation is a fundamental issue in design, development, and deployment of classification systems. As predictive performance evaluation is a multidimensional problem, single scalar summaries such as error rate, although quite convenient due to its simplicity, can seldom evaluate all the aspects that a complete and reliable evaluation must consider. Due to this, various graphical performance evaluation methods are increasingly drawing the attention of machine learning, data mining, and pattern recognition communities. The main advantage of these types of methods resides in their ability to depict the trade-offs between evaluation aspects in a multidimensional space rather than reducing these aspects to an arbitrarily chosen (and often biased) single scalar measure. Furthermore, to appropriately select a suitable graphical method for a given task, it is crucial to identify its strengths and weaknesses. This paper surveys various graphical methods often used for predictive performance evaluation. By presenting these methods in the same framework, we hope this paper may shed some light on deciding which methods are more suitable to use in different situations.

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There is an increasing interest in the application of Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs) to induce classification rules. This hybrid approach can benefit areas where classical methods for rule induction have not been very successful. One example is the induction of classification rules in imbalanced domains. Imbalanced data occur when one or more classes heavily outnumber other classes. Frequently, classical machine learning (ML) classifiers are not able to learn in the presence of imbalanced data sets, inducing classification models that always predict the most numerous classes. In this work, we propose a novel hybrid approach to deal with this problem. We create several balanced data sets with all minority class cases and a random sample of majority class cases. These balanced data sets are fed to classical ML systems that produce rule sets. The rule sets are combined creating a pool of rules and an EA is used to build a classifier from this pool of rules. This hybrid approach has some advantages over undersampling, since it reduces the amount of discarded information, and some advantages over oversampling, since it avoids overfitting. The proposed approach was experimentally analysed and the experimental results show an improvement in the classification performance measured as the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

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Objective: The aim of this study was to verify the discriminative power of the most widely used pain assessment instruments. Methods: The sample consisted of 279 subjects divided into Fibromyalgia Group (FM- 205 patients with fibromyalgia) and Control Group (CG-74 healthy subjects), mean age 49.29 +/- 10.76 years. Only 9 subjects were male, 6 in FM and 3 in CG. FM were outpatients from the Rheumatology Clinic of the University of Sao Paulo - Hospital das Clinicas (HCFMUSP); the CG included people accompanying patients and hospital staff with similar socio-demographic characteristics. Three instruments were used to assess pain: the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ), the Visual Analog Scale (VAS), and the Dolorimetry, to measure pain threshold on tender points (generating the TP index). In order to assess the discriminative power of the instruments, the measurements obtained were submitted to descriptive analysis and inferential analysis using ROC Curve - sensibility (S), specificity (S I) and area under the curve (AUC) - and Contingence tables with Chi-square Test and odds ratio. Significance level was 0.05. Results: Higher sensibility, specificity and area under the curve was obtained by VAS (80%, 80% and 0.864, respectively), followed by Dolorimetry (S 77%, S177% and AUC 0.851), McGill Sensory (S 72%, S167% and AUC 0.765) and McGill Affective (S 69%, S1 67% and AUC 0.753). Conclusions: VAS presented the higher sensibility, specificity and AUC, showing the greatest discriminative power among the instruments. However, these values are considerably similar to those of Dolorimetry.

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A myriad of methods are available for virtual screening of small organic compound databases. In this study we have successfully applied a quantitative model of consensus measurements, using a combination of 3D similarity searches (ROCS and EON), Hologram Quantitative Structure Activity Relationships (HQSAR) and docking (FRED, FlexX, Glide and AutoDock Vina), to retrieve cruzain inhibitors from collected databases. All methods were assessed individually and then combined in a Ligand-Based Virtual Screening (LBVS) and Target-Based Virtual Screening (TBVS) consensus scoring, using Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves to evaluate their performance. Three consensus strategies were used: scaled-rank-by-number, rank-by-rank and rank-by-vote, with the most thriving the scaled-rank-by-number strategy, considering that the stiff ROC curve appeared to be satisfactory in every way to indicate a higher enrichment power at early retrieval of active compounds from the database. The ligand-based method provided access to a robust and predictive HQSAR model that was developed to show superior discrimination between active and inactive compounds, which was also better than ROCS and EON procedures. Overall, the integration of fast computational techniques based on ligand and target structures resulted in a more efficient retrieval of cruzain inhibitors with desired pharmacological profiles that may be useful to advance the discovery of new trypanocidal agents.

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It is believed that eta Carinae is actually a massive binary system, with the wind-wind interaction responsible for the strong X-ray emission. Although the overall shape of the X-ray light curve can be explained by the high eccentricity of the binary orbit, other features like the asymmetry near periastron passage and the short quasi-periodic oscillations seen at those epochs have not yet been accounted for. In this paper we explain these features assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae is not perpendicular to the orbital plane of the binary system. As a consequence, the companion star will face eta Carinae on the orbital plane at different latitudes for different orbital phases and, since both the mass-loss rate and the wind velocity are latitude dependent, they would produce the observed asymmetries in the X-ray flux. We were able to reproduce the main features of the X-ray light curve assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae forms an angle of 29 degrees +/- 4 degrees with the axis of the binary orbit. We also explained the short quasi-periodic oscillations by assuming nutation of the rotation axis, with an amplitude of about 5 degrees and a period of about 22 days. The nutation parameters, as well as the precession of the apsis, with a period of about 274 years, are consistent with what is expected from the torques induced by the companion star.

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In this paper we present some formulae for topological invariants of projective complete intersection curves with isolated singularities in terms of the Milnor number, the Euler characteristic and the topological genus. We also present some conditions, involving the Milnor number and the degree of the curve, for the irreducibility of complete intersection curves.

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We use an inequality due to Bochnak and Lojasiewicz, which follows from the Curve Selection Lemma of real algebraic geometry in order to prove that, given a C(r) function f : U subset of R(m) -> R, we have lim(y -> xy is an element of crit(f)) vertical bar f(y) - f(x)vertical bar/vertical bar y - x vertical bar(r) = 0, for all x is an element of crit(f)` boolean AND U, where crit( f) = {x is an element of U vertical bar df ( x) = 0}. This shows that the so-called Morse decomposition of the critical set, used in the classical proof of the Morse-Sard theorem, is not necessary: the conclusion of the Morse decomposition lemma holds for the whole critical set. We use this result to give a simple proof of the classical Morse-Sard theorem ( with sharp differentiability assumptions).

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We look at plane curve diagrams (f,alpha), which are given by a plane curve multigerm alpha : (R, S) -> R(2) and a function on it f : (R, S) -> R. We obtain a classification of all such diagrams, where alpha has e-codimension <= 2 and f has finite order. Then we define an equivalence between plane curves which we call Ah(alpha)-equivalence and which is determined by the class of the diagram (h(alpha), alpha). Here, h alpha denotes the height function of alpha with respect to its normal vector. This is an equivalence which not only takes into account the topology of the singularity of alpha, but also its flat geometry. Finally, we apply our results in order to obtain a classification of all the plane projections of a generic space curve gamma embedded in R(3).

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The distributions of coercivities and magnetic interactions in a set of polycrystalline Ni(0.8)Fe(0.2)/FeMn bilayers have been determined using the first-order reversal curve (FORC) formalism. The thickness of the permalloy (Py) film was fixed at 10 nm (nominal), while that of the FeMn film varied within the range 0-20 nm. The FORC diagrams of each bilayer displayed two clearly distinguishable regions. The main region was generated by Py particles whose coercivities were enhanced in comparison with those in which the FeMn film was absent (sample O). The minor region was produced by Py particles with coercivities similar to or slightly higher than those of particles in the Py film of sample O. Each sample presented two distributions of interaction fields, one for each region, and both were centred slightly below the exchange-bias field, thus indicating a prevalence of magnetizing interactions. These results are consistent with a grain size distribution in the Py layer and the presence of uncompensated antiferromagnetic moments.

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Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction (XRD) reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H (c) = 12.5 kOe and (BH)(max) = 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains (diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The microstructure is discussed in terms of a calculation by Skomski and Coey. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a poorly coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the poorly coupled sample and for the well-coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests magnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure.

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Ribbons of nominal composition (Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6))(0.96)Cr(0.01)(TiC)(0.03) were produced by arc-melting and melt-spinning the alloys on a Cu wheel. X-ray diffraction reveals two main phases, one based upon alpha-Fe and the other upon Pr(2)Fe(14)B. The ribbons show exchange spring behavior with H(c)=12.5 kOe and (BH)(max)= 13.6 MGOe when these two phases are well coupled. Transmission electron microscopy revealed that the coupled behavior is observed when the microstructure consists predominantly of alpha-Fe grains(diameter similar to 100 nm.) surrounded by hard material containing Pr(2)Fe(14)B. A first-order-reversal-curve (FORC) analysis was performed for both a well-coupled sample and a partially-coupled sample. The FORC diagrams show two strong peaks for both the partially-coupled sample and for the well coupled material. In both cases, the localization of the FORC probability suggests demagnetizing interactions between particles. Switching field distributions were calculated and are consistent with the sample microstructure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Films of isotropic nanocrystalline Pd(80)Co(20) alloys were obtained by electrodeposition onto brass substrate in plating baths maintained at different pH values. Increasing the pH of the plating bath led to an increase in mean grain size without inducing significant changes in the composition of the alloy. The magnetocrystalline anisotropy constant was estimated and the value was of the same order of magnitude as that reported for samples with perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. First order reversal curve (FORC) analysis revealed the presence of an important component of reversible magnetization. Also, FORC diagrams obtained at different sweep rate of the applied magnetic field, revealed that this reversible component is strongly affected by kinetic effect. The slight bias observed in the irreversible part of the FORC distribution suggested the dominance of magnetizing intergrain exchange coupling over demagnetizing dipolar interactions and microstructural disorder. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Pure O-methyl N-methoxycarbonyl thiocarbamate CH(3)OC(S)N(H)C(O)OCH(3) (I) and O-ethyl N-methoxycarbonyl thiocarbamate, CH(3)CH(2)OC(S)N(H)C(O)OCH(3) (II), are quantitatively prepared by the addition reaction between the CH(3)OC(O)NCS and the corresponding alcohols. The compounds are characterized by multinuclear ((1)H and (13)C) and bi-dimensional ((13)C HSQC) NMR, GC-MS and FTIR spectroscopy techniques. Structural and conformational properties are analyzed using a combined approach involving crystallographic data, vibration spectra and theoretical calculations. The low-temperature (150 K) crystal structure of II was determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The substance crystallizes in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/n with a = 4.088(1)angstrom. b = 22.346(1)angstrom, c = 8.284(1)angstrom, beta = 100.687(3)degrees and Z = 4 molecules per unit cell. The conformation adopted by the thiocarbamate group -OC(S)N(H)- is syn (C=S double bond in synperiplanar orientation with respect to the N-H single bond), while the methoxycarbonyl C=O double bond is in antiperiplanar orientation with respect to the N-H bond. The non-H atoms in II are essentially coplanar and the molecules are arranged in the crystal lattice as centro-symmetric dimeric units held by N-H center dot center dot center dot S=C hydrogen bonds Id(N center dot center dot center dot S) = 3.387(1)angstrom, <(N-H center dot center dot center dot S) = 166.4(2)degrees]. Furthermore, the effect of the it electronic resonance in the structural and vibrational properties is also discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.